THE DYNAMICS AND PROBABILISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ICE PHENOMENA OF THE DANUBE RIVER AND ITS KILIYSKY CHANNEL

Gorbachova Liudmyla, Khrystyuk Borys

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute Kyiv, Ukraine

Abstract

The analysis of the long-term dynamics of the dates of the ice phenomena and their duration on the Danube river and its Kiliysky channel on the base of the total and difference integral curves, the statistical Fisher`s and Stjudent`s criteria, as well as the statistical significance of the linear trends was carried out. The earliest, the means and the latest dates of the appearance and disappearances of the ice phenomena, as well as their mean and the most duration were defined. The analytical curves of the binomial distribution of the dates of the ice phenomena and curves of the three-parameter gamma-distribution of the duration of the ice phenomena was created that allowed to define the probabilistic characteristics of the main phases of the ice phenomena.

Full text .PDF